In this newsletter we dive into the developments in November and discuss the GENIUS-act and the new plans by Visa.
Core Fund The Core Fund currently places a strong emphasis on active hedge management, aiming to mitigate downward movements during the recent market correction as effectively as possible. Through tactical hedging strategies, we remain protected during periods of increased volatility, while maintaining sufficient exposure to benefit from market recoveries. Over the past week, positions in Solana, Bitcoin, and Morpho have been increased, while the Ethereum allocation has been cautiously reduced. This rebalancing aligns with our conviction that Solana and Morpho currently exhibit stronger fundamental developments. At the same time, Bitcoin continues to serve as a stable core position within the fund. Our focus remains on consistently outperforming the CCI30, particularly in declining markets where disciplined risk management and strategic allocation make a tangible difference. Yield Fund The Yield Fund has delivered solid performance over the past few weeks. The emphasis is increasingly on basis trades and providing liquidity to DeFi perpetual platforms – strategies that can generate stable returns even in volatile conditions. Basis trades combine the purchase of spot positions with the shorting of futures, allowing us to capitalise on price fluctuations without taking directional risk. We have further increased the position in Avantis due to the attractive yield dynamics within that ecosystem. The existing allocation in EdgeX has also been augmented, reflecting the rising trading volumes observed on the platform. The fund continues to serve as a strong source of market-neutral returns within our overall fund structure. Frontier Fund The Frontier Fund is currently facing a pronounced correction in the altcoin segment. Despite downward pressure on market prices, the underlying projects in which we invest continue to develop. Growth in user activity, technological advancements, and increased developer engagement are, at this stage, not yet fully reflected in market valuations. Our long-term perspective remains unchanged. For this fund, a patient approach is essential, particularly because the projects we select tend to demonstrate their full value in later market cycles. The portfolio continues to be carefully constructed and positioned for the moment when sentiment and fundamentals realign.
Bitcoin is experiencing a difficult period, having dropped below $90,000 for the first time in seven months. The last time the cryptocurrency traded near this level was in April, when it fell to $74,400 following announcements on trade tariffs by Donald Trump. Today, market instability is driven by uncertain interest rates. Historically, November has been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months, with an average return of 42.5%, but this year the month is being dubbed “Painvember” as the figures already appear notably red. Worst Fourth Quarter Since 2018 The current decline surpasses previous weak quarters in 2022 and 2019 and may even exceed the 16.7% drop seen in 2014. Bitcoin dipped below $93,000 on Sunday, its lowest level since April, and was trading around $94,000 on Monday morning, more than 25% below its all-time high of $126,000 on 6 October. Year-to-date, the price remains relatively flat for 2025. Technical indicators point to potential capitulation. Investors who opened positions in the past six to twelve months are, on average, underwater. Historically, such levels often coincide with panic peaks. A recovery above $100,000, combined with steady inflows via ETFs, is viewed as the most reliable path to structural recovery. Without this rebound, further correction towards $88,000–$92,000 remains possible. ETF Developments and Outflows Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.1 billion in outflows last week, bringing total November outflows to $2.3 billion, approaching the record $3.5 billion outflow seen in February 2025. Large investors and institutions are reducing positions, partly driven by macroeconomic uncertainty, profit-taking, and tax strategies. Analysts note that such outflows can often signal that the market bottom is approaching. They may also represent a final entry point below $100,000, provided trading volumes are sufficient to confirm a potential trend reversal. Long-Term Perspective and Strategic Acquisitions Despite downward pressure, some major players continue to invest. One prominent investment fund recently added 8,178 BTC to its holdings for $835.6 million, marking its largest purchase since July and bringing its total to 649,870 BTC. The declining price has also compressed mNAV premiums in the Bitcoin market. This represents a natural revaluation: risk is repriced, capital rotates out of momentum positions, and asset valuations normalize towards the intrinsic value of the underlying BTC reserves rather than speculative forward assumptions.
The GENIUS Act presents significant challenges for financial regulators, compliance teams, and software developers. The law will take effect on January 18, 2027, or 120 days after final stablecoin regulations are issued, whichever comes first. While there appears to be time to prepare, the economic significance of stablecoins demands that implementation be both swift and accurate. Stablecoins have become a major asset class. The total market capitalization is estimated at over $300 billion, with global transaction volumes last year reaching approximately $27.6 trillion—exceeding the combined volume of Visa and Mastercard. These figures highlight the need for careful regulatory application to protect the capital circulating in these markets. Historically, financial regulation unfolded over years or decades. In contrast, the GENIUS Act requires a near “hyper-speed” approach. Traditional legal principles must now be applied to fast-evolving blockchain and digital systems. Code and technology effectively become tools to enforce compliance, ensuring market participants follow the law while accommodating innovation. Predictions about the GENIUS Act’s impact vary. Some observers anticipate that traditional banks may gain a competitive edge, while others see benefits for emerging markets through more efficient transfers. What is certain is that regulators, compliance professionals, and software engineers must work closely together to align technological innovations with the regulatory framework and safeguard the substantial capital within stablecoin markets. A stablecoin-based monetary ecosystem is arriving quickly, and its success depends on the integration of technology and compliance.
Visa Inc. is piloting the direct transfer of stablecoins to consumers’ cryptocurrency wallets, targeting gig workers and digital creators in emerging markets. The pilot is part of Visa Direct, the company’s real-time payments platform serving 195 countries, and will use USDC, the US dollar-backed stablecoin issued by Circle Internet Group. The initiative addresses growing demand for fiat-backed digital currencies in regions with volatile local money. For gig workers and content creators, stablecoin payouts provide a faster and more reliable way to receive earnings compared to local currencies that may fluctuate significantly. Platforms such as TikTok, Uber, and DoorDash could use this method for global disbursements, as well as for vendor payments through Visa Direct. Visa and Mastercard are increasingly incorporating stablecoins into their product offerings, aiming to extend beyond traditional credit card payments. Visa Direct is positioned as a platform to facilitate not only consumer transactions but also business-to-business flows and cross-border payments, with stablecoins playing a central role in enhancing efficiency and flexibility.

