The cryptocurrency market experienced its weakest trading month since June in November. Spot volumes, on-chain activity, and market sentiment all came under pressure, while macroeconomic developments outside the crypto sector clearly influenced market risk. The result was a month marked by reduced liquidity, narrower trading ranges, and price fluctuations that were quickly and sharply reflected in the market. Declining Market Liquidity and Volumes On centralized exchanges, spot volumes fell to $1.59 trillion, according to CryptoQuant data, a drop of nearly 27% compared to October. This decline in trading activity suggests that market participants have become more cautious after weeks of heightened volatility, large-scale liquidations, and macroeconomic uncertainty. The decrease in activity was not limited to centralized platforms. On-chain trading also slowed down. Decentralized exchanges recorded a combined volume of $397 billion, the lowest level since June. The ratio of DEX to CEX volume fell toward 16%, indicating that traders tend to return to centralized infrastructure during periods of higher volatility, where liquidity is typically deeper. Macroeconomic Shocks Amplify Risk Reduction Meanwhile, an unexpected global shift put financial markets on edge. The Bank of Japan indicated it might move away from the extremely loose monetary policy that had characterized the Japanese economy for years. This shift toward a more hawkish stance led to a sharp increase in Japanese bond yields. The 10-year yield reached its highest level since 2008, while the U.S. 10-year yield also moved higher, surpassing 4%. Just a week earlier, the market assigned less than a 25% chance to a rate hike in December; this probability is now estimated at around 80%. For crypto, this development is significant because Japan is one of the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds. As Japanese interest rates rise, capital is incentivized to flow back into domestic markets, potentially putting downward pressure on global liquidity—at a time when the crypto market is already facing lower volumes. Historically, reduced liquidity has been one of the most direct risks for digital assets. Broad Global Shift When Asian markets opened on Monday, a clear risk-off move followed. Bitcoin fell intraday to around $84,800, a drop of nearly seven percent. Ethereum, Solana, and other major altcoins moved in a similar downward pattern. This movement came on top of an already significant decline in November, during which Bitcoin lost almost 17%, partly due to a large-scale leverage reset in October that saw approximately $19 billion in positions liquidated. The market responded to a broader global shift toward risk aversion. Higher bond yields reduce liquidity, and in an environment where volumes are already limited, price movements are amplified. Digital assets typically react first and most strongly under such conditions.

Michael Saylor and his company Strategy Inc. are known for their bold approach: raising capital, buying Bitcoin, and profiting from a rising market. This model worked well for a long time. The combination of aggressive purchases, a strong narrative, and Saylor’s own enthusiasm led other companies to follow suit in hopes of achieving similar returns. However, with Bitcoin’s price falling below $90,000 and approaching Strategy’s average purchase price, the model is beginning to falter. Strategy’s success has led to numerous imitators, reducing the premium the company once enjoyed. At the same time, investor sentiment is under pressure; an estimated $17 billion in market value has been wiped out across these types of companies. Short sellers are benefiting, while the “Bitcoin treasury strategy” seems less convincing than before. Strategy itself has signaled that it might sell Bitcoin if necessary to meet dividend and interest obligations, contrary to its previous “never sell” statements. The company has even built a $1.4 billion cash reserve for this purpose. While this step is pragmatic, the market could interpret it as a sign that the company is bracing for a longer period of uncertainty. The reserve helps Strategy meet its obligations but cannot singlehandedly stabilize the $1.7 trillion Bitcoin market. Analysts also warn of broader risks, such as price volatility, cybersecurity, and the potential impact if a major Bitcoin treasury company were ever hacked. Still, this does not imply a catastrophic scenario for the sector. The market has repeatedly shown resilience in the face of fluctuations. However, it remains crucial to closely monitor developments around companies like Strategy and other similar entities. When one of the major drivers of a market segment comes under pressure, it can have wider implications for both institutional and retail investors.

November was a turbulent month for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to data from SoSoValue, these funds recorded net outflows of $3.48 billion, marking the largest monthly outflow since February. Outflows persisted for four consecutive weeks starting the week of October 31, with more than $4.34 billion leaving the funds during that period. However, the month ended with three consecutive days of net inflows ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Institutions reposition themselves BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest Bitcoin ETF by assets under management, saw net outflows of $2.34 billion in November. On November 18, it recorded its largest daily net outflow since launch, totaling $523 million. According to LVRG’s Nick Ruck, these outflows mainly reflect institutional profit-taking after Bitcoin’s recent rally and year-end portfolio rebalancing, rather than a fundamental loss of confidence. Cumulative inflows remain positive, and open interest in Bitcoin futures continues to rise, indicating that institutions remain structurally long but are now more valuation-sensitive amid macroeconomic uncertainty. Spot Ethereum ETFs also saw a monthly net outflow of $1.42 billion — their largest on record — despite ending the month with five consecutive days of net inflows. Meanwhile, newly launched spot altcoin ETFs, such as Solana and XRP, have reported weekly net inflows since their debut. XRP ETFs have attracted $666 million in cumulative inflows so far. Litecoin and Hedera ETFs recorded $7 million and $36 million in inflows in November, respectively. According to Ruck, these new ETFs highlight that institutional capital remains concentrated in Bitcoin and Ethereum until greater regulatory clarity and on-chain stability emerge. At the same time, the range of crypto ETF products continues to expand: for example, Grayscale is set to launch the first U.S. spot Chainlink ETF, further broadening the options available to institutional crypto investors.